Since October last year, the EU has lost 50% of its primary aluminum production, equivalent to 1.1 million tons. European production, which is already well below the world average in terms of carbon emissions, was immediately replaced by carbon capacity increases in other regions of the world, especially in China, India and Indonesia, leading to a considerable increase in global emissions of 10.3 million net tons of CO2 in the last year.
Although CO2 emissions will have been reduced by 7.4 million tons in the EU by 2022, at the same time, aluminum smelters will emit 10.3 million tons more CO2 in the rest of the world.
However, on average, between 2017 and 2030, the European Environment Agency estimates the CO2 reduction in the EU to be 81 million tons per year. Thus, almost 13% of the annual CO2 reduction efforts of the entire European economy are simply offset by third countries if EU primary aluminum production is substituted.
‘Assessment of the effects of the CBAM on the European value chain’, conducted by independent commodity analyst CRU, highlights the risks to the value chain if the CBAM includes indirect emissions: aluminum production costs will increase by 24% to 31%. Imports of primary aluminum for semifabrication could increase by up to 43% and total value-added losses by up to 77%.