Metal Packaging Giants to Exceed Earnings in 2025 Thanks to Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Investment firm Citi anticipates that U.S. can manufacturers will exceed earnings expectations in the second quarter thanks to strong demand, especially for non-alcoholic beverages.

Citi also projects that they will raise their annual forecasts due to stronger-than-expected demand, driven by this same demand.

Among the companies, Crown Holdings received a positive rating and was highlighted as the most attractive in the sector, with expectations that its management will increase the goals for 2025 thanks to volume growth in the U.S., better results in Europe, and a favorable exchange rate. Citi also improved its forecasts for Ball Corp and Ardagh Metal Packaging, anticipating a 2-3% increase in EBITDA over consensus projections.

The volume of cans in the U.S. grew 6.8% year-on-year through mid-June, far exceeding initial expectations, with a notable 10% increase in non-alcoholic beverage categories, which particularly benefited Crown and Ardagh. Despite the recent imposition of tariffs on aluminum, Citi believes that the impact is limited, although it warns that the upcoming quarterly reports will be key to adjusting volume outlooks.

Although the sector remains undervalued compared to its historical averages, Citi points to a potential increase in valuation if demand trends are confirmed and projections are revised upwards.